The effects of a nuclear war that
cannot be calculated are at least as important as those for which
calculations are attempted. Moreover, even these limited calculations
are subject to very large uncertainties.
The Effects of Nuclear War (1979)
United States. Congress. Office of Technology Assessment.
Whilst the above is undoubtedly true,
the effects of individual weapons can be calculated to a very large
degree, based upon numerous nuclear tests. There will always be some
uncertainties, however, and in the event of an actual war there would be
little time to present all possible outcomes, and in any case this would
be confusing to the general populace. At the same time it must be
remembered that two different detonations of identical weapons may have
very different effects depending on a number of factors, including
meteorological conditions, altitude of burst etc.
This page considers the effects of nuclear weapons, it is much
simplified for sake of brevity. More information is available elsewhere
on this site, and more detailed accounts can be found in some of the
sources referenced below are advised.
Explosions
An explosion results when a relatively
large amount of energy is released in a relatively small volume, it
doesn't much matter whether the explosion is caused by a chemical
reaction as in a High Explosive (HE) detonation, or a nuclear reaction,
the overall effects are much the same with the exception that nuclear
weapons release nuclear radiation. An explosion produces large amounts
of very hot gases, which expand rapidly, the major physical effects
being due to both the heat and the rapid expansion. It is often
suggested that a key difference is in the explosive power of the
different weapon types, this is not strictly true. Whilst deliverable
nuclear weapons have the potential to have greater powers than HE ones,
there have been many HE weapons developed that are more powerful than
smaller nuclear devices. It is also commonly said that only
nuclear weapons produce electromagnetic pulse effects (EMP), this is not
true, the causes may be different, but chemical explosives do produce a
small EMP. A key difference between a conventional HE explosion and a
nuclear explosion is that in the case of a chemical explosion all the
atoms present prior to the explosion are present in the products. In the
case of a nuclear explosion there are a whole range of elements and
isotopes present in the products that were not there prior to the
detonation.
Weapon sizes and bomb power/yield
The power of a nuclear weapon is the
total energy released during its explosion, including all forms of
energy. The units used are comparative. A 1 kiloton (1kt) unit is
equivalent to the energy released by the explosion of 1,000 tons of
T.N.T.
1KT ~ 1012 calories
~ 4.2x1019 ergs
~ 4.184 terajoules
(4.184×1012 J)
~ 3.1x1012
ft.lbs
~ 1.15x106
kwh
~ 1.8x109 btu
~ to the energy released
by burning 350 tons of coal
and comes from the fission, in a uranium fueled weapon, of 1.45 x 1023
nuclei or about 25 grams of 235U.
The average person will have little idea of what a kiloton explosion
means, the weapon dropped on Hiroshima is estimated to have had a yield
of 15kt, and that on Nagasaki, 21kt. These early weapons were remarkably
inefficient. The weapon used at Nagasaki, Fat Man, contained about 5kg
of 239Pu of which only about 525 grams actually fissioned, equivalent to
only 10.5% efficiency. In cold war terms, it was a relatively
small weapon. In Civil Defence Corps training this is what was
referred to as a 'nominal weapon'.
With the arrival of hydrogen or thermonuclear weapons, in the early
1950s, a new unit was needed, this was a thousand times greater than the
kiloton and is known as the megaton (Mt). Weapons have now been tested
up to and including a single bomb of 50 Mt (Tsar Bomba), although it is
believed that the Soviet Union built bombs with potential yields as high
as 100 MT.
Cube root law (of weapon power)
As a result of calculation, modified
where necessary by the results of tests in the 1950s and 60s, various
scaling laws have been developed by the relevant bodies in the UK and
elsewhere, however most effects follow the cube root law.
The power of a weapon is the total energy released upon detonation, thus
a 10 Mt weapon is 500 times as powerful as a 20 kt weapon, and releases
500 times as much total energy, including blast, thermal and
radioactivity. The cube root of 500 or ∛500 is nearly 8 and it has been
found that, if we compare these two weapons, the peak overpressure at
distances is also different by a factor of approximately 8. Thus the
peak overpressure at 1 mile from a 20kt weapon will be the same as that
at 8 miles from a 10Mt device, assuming all other factors are equal. It
is possible to use the same scaling law for many of the weapons effects,
and indeed this is the basis of a number of weapons effects disk
computers used for civil defence purposes.
Weapons Effects
It must be understood that there are
always difficulties regarding quantification of the effects of specific
weapons detonations. It must be remembered that nuclear weapons have
only been used in war twice, and that there were a number of
characteristics which were similar in both cases. The first is that the
weapons were of a similar size - 15kt & 21kt, both were low
air-burst detonations - 580 metres & 500 metres. In neither case
were the populations prepared in any way for what happened, although
there had been major bombing raids producing firestorms, in the
preceding weeks on other cities in Japan. The heights were about optimal
to maximise blast and heat effects, but to minimise fallout.
Some of the effects of nuclear weapons are similar to those of
conventional high energy bombs, namely blast and shock waves, and to a
lesser extent light and heat flash, and even less so electromagnetic
pulse.
The energy of a nuclear explosion is released in a number of
different ways:
an explosive blast, which is
qualitatively similar to the blast from ordinary chemical
explosions, but which has somewhat different effects because it is
typically so much larger;
direct thermal radiation, most of
which takes the form of visible light;
direct nuclear radiation;
the creation of a variety of
radioactive particles, which are thrown up into the air by the force
of the blast, and are called radioactive fallout when they return to
Earth;
pulses of electrical and magnetic
energy, called electromagnetic pulse (EMP).
The large amounts of energy released in
a nuclear explosion at low altitude are distributed approximately as
shown in the diagram. At different heights the relative amounts of
energy released vary.
The detonation of both fission and fusion weapons leads to the release
of enormous amounts of energy in a very short time, and in a relatively
small amount of matter. As a result the temperature of the bomb
components, including all the products of the detonation, rises to
a temperature much higher than the centre of the Sun, that is of the
order of 10,000,000°C. Compare that with the temperatures reached in
conventional explosions, which are in the region of 3,000 to 5,000°C.
Because of the extreme heat all the materials that make up the weapon
are converted to gas, but confined in a very small volume, this means
that the pressures are enormous, maybe of the order of 1,000,000 times
normal atmospheric pressure.
Burst classification
Because nuclear threat factors are a
function of the height of burst, explosions are classified as one of the
four: subsurface, surface, air, or high altitude. For example, blast,
shock, and thermal threats are more significant from a surface burst
than from a high altitude burst. EMP, on the other hand, is a greater
concern as a result of a high altitude detonation.
A subsurface burst is one in
which the weapon is detonated beneath the ground or under the
surface of water. A fully contained subsurface burst is one in which
the fireball does not reach the surfacw.
A surface burst is one which
occurs either on the earth's surface or slightly above. The
allowable distance above the surface which will differentiate
between a surface burst and an air burst is determined by the size
of the fireball.
An air burst is one when the
altitude of detonation is such that the burst is within the
atmosphere (under 100,000 feet - approximately 19 miles or
30.5 kilometres), and the fireball, at its greatest intensity no
longer touches land or water. A fireball can grow to over one mile
across at its maximum brilliance, requiring a detonation altitude of
over 2,500 feet to be an air burst.
A high altitude burst is
generally defined as one which occurs above 100,000 feet (above the
altitude where there is any significant atmosphere).
For most civil defence purposes during
the cold war, in the UK, only surface and air bursts were largely
considered, and most of this section will relate to these.
Ground Zero
"Ground zero" refers to the point on
the earth's surface immediately below (or above) the point of
detonation. In some publications, ground zero is called the "hypocentre"
of the explosion. Ground zero is commonly abbreviated as GZ.
Total casualties
Numerous attempts have been made to
estimate the number of casualties likely in a nuclear attack on the UK,
mostly during the Cold war for the purposes of civil defence planning.
None of the figures can be said to be conclusive, but all are
frightening. It is difficult to show the effects of an attack on the UK
based on available data, as the various figures produced at different
times were based on a wide range of different criteria. Even in the
worst case scenario envisioned by the UK Home Office, there would still
be a few millions of survivors, and that is with minimal civil defence
type activity, some estimates suggest that the number of survivors could
be tripled if there were an active level of civil defence such as there
had been prior to 1968.
The effects of population
distribution
For the majority of the Cold War, UK
civil defence policy was predicated on the basis of not evacuating the
population from areas at high risk of attack or of high population
density, this was in contrast to WWII, when children were evacuated from
London and other major cities, in the last few days prior to the
outbreak of hostilities. The Home Office's own computer based
predictions suggested that with limited dispersal, aimed at producing a
more uniformly distributed population, in geographical terms, might
result in some 9 million fewer casualties. This is a best case. The
situation is complicated by the fact that the figures would be very
different for a night time attack and a daytime one, city populations
grow considerably during the daytime. Figures for London suggest that
the population of London grows by about two million during the day, or
about 1/5th, and that this growth is largely concentrated in
Westminster, the City of London and Camden. The higher the density of
population, the larger the number of casualties.
Synergism (combined effects of
injury):
In other related pages each of the
causes of injury and death (blast, nuclear radiation, and thermal
radiation) has been considered in isolation. When calculating the
numbers of casualties it is customary to consider for any given range,
the effect most likely to kill people and its consequences are
calculated, while the other effects are ignored. It is obvious that
combined injuries are possible, but there are no generally accepted ways
of calculating the probability of the outcome. What data do exist seem
to suggest that calculations of single effects are not too inaccurate
for immediate deaths, but that deaths occurring some time after the
explosion may well be due to combined causes, and hence are omitted from
most calculations. Some of the obvious possibilities are:
Nuclear Radiation Combined With
Thermal Radiation:
Severe burns place considerable stress
on the blood system, and often cause anemia. Nuclear radiation reduces
the ability of the haematopoietic tissues to produce sufficient blood
cells. A sub-lethal radiation dose could make it impossible to recover
from a burn that, without the radiation, would not cause death. It must
be remembered that in the event of nuclear attack that there would be
insufficient blood stocks for transfusions, even if the medical and
technical staff were available to do them, there are times during peace
when the NHS gets very low on certain blood types.
Nuclear Radiation Combined With
Mechanical Injuries.
Mechanical injuries, the indirect
results of blast, take many forms. Flying glass and the like will cause
puncture wounds. Winds may blow people into obstructions, causing broken
bones, concussions, and internal injuries. Persons caught in a
collapsing building can suffer many similar mechanical injuries. There
is evidence that all of these types of injuries are more serious if the
person has been exposed to radiation, particularly if treatment is
delayed. Damage to the circulation will clearly make a victim more
susceptible to blood loss and infection. The number of prompt and
delayed (from radiation) deaths both increase over what would be
expected from the single effect alone.
Thermal Radiation and Mechanical
lnjuries.
There is little information available
about the effects of this combination, beyond the common sense
observation that since each can place a great stress on a healthy body,
the combination of injuries that are individually tolerable may subject
the body to a total stress that it cannot tolerate. Mechanical injuries
should be prevalent at about the distance from a nuclear explosion that
produces sub-lethal burns, so this synergism could be an important one.
In general, synergistic effects would be most likely to produce death
when each of the injuries alone is quite severe. Because the
uncertainties of nuclear effects are compounded when one tries to
estimate the likelihood of two or more serious but (individually)
nonfatal injuries, there really is no way to estimate the number of
victims. A further dimension of the problem is the possible synergy
between injuries and environmental damage. To take one obvious example,
poor sanitation (due to the loss of electrical power and water pressure)
can clearly compound the effects of any kind of serious injury. Another
possibility is that an injury would so incapacitate a victim that they
would be unable to escape from a fire.